The Signal Report Card.
What our actual published signals did next — measured on realized prices, every signal counted. Live since May 29, 2026.
Overall — every long signal we've published
25,102 signals · since May 29, 2026| Holding window | Win rate | Avg return | Median | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next 5 sessions | 47% | -0.08% | — | 25,102 |
| Next 10 sessions | 49% | +0.09% | — | 23,289 |
| Next 20 sessions | 52% | +0.16% | — | 18,929 |
Win rate is the share that closed higher than the signal-day entry. The 20-session column fills in as more signals age past that window.
How this is measured
Entry is the signal-day close of every long signal we publish. The return is the realized move over the following N trading sessions; a win is closing higher than entry. No survivorship — every signal we logged counts, winners and losers alike. This is a forward record (it started the day we began logging), not a backtest fit to history, so it is deliberately small at first and will lengthen as more signals age past each horizon.
By lane — over the next 5 sessions
The four long-only lanes track a breakout's life cycle, from coiling to retest.
| Lane / pattern | Win rate | Avg return | Median | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setting up | 47% | -0.01% | -0.12% | 17,862 |
| Breaking out | 47% | -0.02% | -0.15% | 2,987 |
| Broke out | 47% | -0.42% | -0.10% | 3,299 |
| Retesting breakout | 47% | -0.28% | -0.06% | 954 |
By lane — over the next 10 sessions
The four long-only lanes track a breakout's life cycle, from coiling to retest.
| Lane / pattern | Win rate | Avg return | Median | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setting up | 49% | +0.11% | -0.05% | 16,425 |
| Breaking out | 52% | +0.33% | +0.10% | 2,823 |
| Broke out | 48% | -0.30% | -0.08% | 3,163 |
| Retesting breakout | 50% | +0.28% | +0.01% | 878 |
By lane — over the next 20 sessions
The four long-only lanes track a breakout's life cycle, from coiling to retest.
| Lane / pattern | Win rate | Avg return | Median | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setting up | 53% | +0.34% | +0.29% | 12,735 |
| Breaking out | 51% | -0.26% | +0.14% | 2,472 |
| Broke out | 50% | -0.28% | +0.02% | 2,955 |
| Retesting breakout | 52% | +0.32% | +0.10% | 767 |
By pattern — over the next 5 sessions
The bullish chart patterns we put on the long board, ranked by how many we've published.
| Lane / pattern | Win rate | Avg return | Median | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascending Triangle | 47% | +0.00% | -0.05% | 7,421 |
| Flat Base | 43% | -0.04% | -0.38% | 5,175 |
| Bull Flag | 49% | +0.18% | -0.06% | 4,935 |
| Falling trendline break | 54% | +0.29% | +0.25% | 2,853 |
| Bull Pennant | 44% | -0.42% | -0.53% | 1,261 |
| Cup & Handle | 50% | -0.18% | -0.03% | 1,166 |
| Inverse Head & Shoulders | 43% | -1.01% | -0.95% | 314 |
| Double Bottom | 28% | -1.89% | -3.05% | 265 |
Fusion signals — over the next 5 sessions
The composite daily signals that fuse alt-data with the chart — newer than the lanes.
| Signal | Win rate | Avg return | Median | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smart-Money Confluence | 43% | -0.94% | -0.75% | 7,122 |
| Power Earnings Gap | 49% | +0.00% | -0.07% | 9,917 |
By market regime — setups over the next 5 sessions
How our setups performed by the market-timing read in effect when they fired.
| Market regime | Win rate | Avg return | Median | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Confirmed uptrend | 52% | -0.13% | +0.09% | 3,603 |
| Uptrend under pressure | 51% | -0.22% | +0.06% | 1,004 |
| Market in correction | 44% | -0.15% | -0.31% | 15,124 |
The longer base rate
Beyond our own log, the underlying edge is measurable over a longer window: across 77,834 fresh 50-day-high breakouts in the last ~252 sessions of our price history, the average 5-session forward return was -0.12% and 50% closed higher.
Educational only — not financial advice. Chart and candlestick patterns frequently fail, and a forward return measured at a fixed horizon ignores the entry, stop, and target a trader would actually use. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Numbers refresh daily and will shift as the sample grows.
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