The Signal Report Card.
What our actual published signals did next — measured on realized prices, every signal counted. Live since May 29, 2026.
Overall — every long signal we've published
13,688 signals · since May 29, 2026| Holding window | Win rate | Avg return | Median | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next 5 sessions | 49% | -1.06% | — | 13,688 |
| Next 10 sessions | 53% | -0.44% | — | 12,102 |
| Next 20 sessions | 53% | -0.62% | — | 8,300 |
Win rate is the share that closed higher than the signal-day entry. The 20-session column fills in as more signals age past that window.
How this is measured
Entry is the signal-day close of every long signal we publish. The return is the realized move over the following N trading sessions; a win is closing higher than entry. No survivorship — every signal we logged counts, winners and losers alike. This is a forward record (it started the day we began logging), not a backtest fit to history, so it is deliberately small at first and will lengthen as more signals age past each horizon.
By lane — over the next 5 sessions
The four long-only lanes track a breakout's life cycle, from coiling to retest.
| Lane / pattern | Win rate | Avg return | Median | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setting up | 51% | -0.69% | +0.08% | 9,128 |
| Breaking out | 47% | -1.32% | -0.13% | 1,992 |
| Broke out | 44% | -1.77% | -0.39% | 2,038 |
| Retesting breakout | 41% | -3.66% | -0.36% | 530 |
By lane — over the next 10 sessions
The four long-only lanes track a breakout's life cycle, from coiling to retest.
| Lane / pattern | Win rate | Avg return | Median | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setting up | 55% | +0.03% | +0.30% | 7,989 |
| Breaking out | 51% | -0.97% | +0.10% | 1,745 |
| Broke out | 47% | -1.46% | -0.25% | 1,903 |
| Retesting breakout | 51% | -2.24% | +0.10% | 465 |
By lane — over the next 20 sessions
The four long-only lanes track a breakout's life cycle, from coiling to retest.
| Lane / pattern | Win rate | Avg return | Median | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setting up | 55% | +0.15% | +0.44% | 4,885 |
| Breaking out | 51% | -2.21% | +0.10% | 1,454 |
| Broke out | 48% | -1.07% | -0.16% | 1,608 |
| Retesting breakout | 51% | -2.57% | +0.05% | 353 |
By pattern — over the next 5 sessions
The bullish chart patterns we put on the long board, ranked by how many we've published.
| Lane / pattern | Win rate | Avg return | Median | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascending Triangle | 46% | -3.66% | -0.09% | 4,084 |
| Flat Base | 51% | +0.14% | +0.06% | 2,539 |
| Bull Flag | 51% | +0.43% | +0.12% | 2,339 |
| Downtrend | 55% | +0.23% | +0.27% | 1,713 |
| Bull Pennant | 48% | -0.29% | -0.16% | 642 |
| Cup & Handle | 54% | -0.13% | +0.45% | 603 |
| Double Bottom | 27% | -2.28% | -3.09% | 273 |
| Inverse Head & Shoulders | 47% | +0.09% | -0.52% | 232 |
Fusion signals — over the next 5 sessions
The composite daily signals that fuse alt-data with the chart — newer than the lanes.
| Signal | Win rate | Avg return | Median | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smart-Money Confluence | 47% | -0.12% | -0.15% | 1,430 |
| Power Earnings Gap | 61% | +1.46% | +1.11% | 1,403 |
By market regime — setups over the next 5 sessions
How our setups performed by the market-timing read in effect when they fired.
| Market regime | Win rate | Avg return | Median | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market in correction | 48% | -1.47% | -0.06% | 8,341 |
The longer base rate
Beyond our own log, the underlying edge is measurable over a longer window: across 97,196 fresh 50-day-high breakouts in the last ~252 sessions of our price history, the average 5-session forward return was -1.18% and 51% closed higher.
Educational only — not financial advice. Chart and candlestick patterns frequently fail, and a forward return measured at a fixed horizon ignores the entry, stop, and target a trader would actually use. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Numbers refresh daily and will shift as the sample grows.
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