The Signal Report Card.
Every product shows a backtest. We show what our actual published signals did next — measured on realized prices, with every signal counted and the sample size next to each number. Live since May 29, 2026. It's young, it's honest, and it grows every day.
Overall — every long signal we've published
3,562 signals · since May 29, 2026| Holding window | Win rate | Avg return | Median | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next 5 sessions | 48% | -0.76% | — | 3,562 |
| Next 10 sessions | 55% | -0.00% | — | 1,705 |
Win rate is the share that closed higher than the signal-day entry. The 20-session column fills in as more signals age past that window.
How this is measured
Entry is the signal-day close of every long signal we publish. The return is the realized move over the following N trading sessions; a win is closing higher than entry. No survivorship — every signal we logged counts, winners and losers alike. This is a forward record (it started the day we began logging), not a backtest fit to history, so it is deliberately small at first and will lengthen as more signals age past each horizon.
By lane — over the next 5 sessions
The four long-only lanes track a breakout's life cycle, from coiling to retest.
| Lane / pattern | Win rate | Avg return | Median | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setting up | 54% | -0.30% | +0.21% | 1,830 |
| Breaking out | 47% | -0.11% | -0.25% | 809 |
| Broke out | 38% | -2.36% | -1.10% | 750 |
| Retesting breakout | 32% | -1.76% | -1.28% | 173 |
By lane — over the next 10 sessions
The four long-only lanes track a breakout's life cycle, from coiling to retest.
| Lane / pattern | Win rate | Avg return | Median | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setting up | 62% | +1.04% | +1.41% | 926 |
| Breaking out | 51% | +0.55% | +0.37% | 235 |
| Broke out | 42% | -2.88% | -0.89% | 417 |
| Retesting breakout | 57% | +0.79% | +0.49% | 127 |
By pattern — over the next 5 sessions
The bullish chart patterns we put on the long board, ranked by how many we've published.
| Lane / pattern | Win rate | Avg return | Median | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascending Triangle | 45% | -1.77% | -0.20% | 671 |
| Downtrend | 58% | +0.39% | +0.40% | 561 |
| Bull Flag | 56% | +1.09% | +0.52% | 518 |
| Flat Base | 50% | -0.03% | +0.03% | 436 |
| Double Bottom | 27% | -2.34% | -3.11% | 274 |
| Cup & Handle | 53% | -0.15% | +0.58% | 187 |
| Bull Pennant | 46% | -0.71% | -0.41% | 175 |
| Inverse Head & Shoulders | 39% | -1.85% | -1.13% | 111 |
The longer base rate
Beyond our own log, the underlying edge is measurable over a longer window: across 100,856 fresh 50-day-high breakouts in the last ~252 sessions of our price history, the average 5-session forward return was -0.91% and 53% closed higher.
Educational only — not financial advice. Chart and candlestick patterns frequently fail, and a forward return measured at a fixed horizon ignores the entry, stop, and target a trader would actually use. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Numbers refresh daily and will shift as the sample grows.
See today's signals — and judge for yourself.
The board, the trade plans, and this record all come from the same nightly scan. Watch it forward.
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