Forward-tracked · not a backtest

The Signal Report Card.

What our actual published signals did next — measured on realized prices, every signal counted. Live since May 29, 2026.

Overall — every long signal we've published

34,353 signals · since May 29, 2026

Holding window	Win rate	Avg return	Signals
Next 5 sessions	49%	+0.00%	34,353
Next 10 sessions	50%	-0.01%	32,756
Next 20 sessions	45%	-1.03%	28,441

Win rate is the share that closed higher than the signal-day entry. The 20-session column fills in as more signals age past that window.

Hypothetical results from price history and published signals, not actual trades; they exclude commissions and slippage. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results.

How this is measured

Entry is the signal-day close of every long signal we publish. The return is the realized move over the following N trading sessions; a win is closing higher than entry. No survivorship — every signal we logged counts, winners and losers alike. This is a forward record (it started the day we began logging), not a backtest fit to history, so it is deliberately small at first and will lengthen as more signals age past each horizon.

By lane — over the next 5 sessions

The four long-only lanes track a breakout's life cycle, from coiling to retest.

Lane / pattern	Win rate	Avg return	Median	Signals
Setting upCoiling toward a breakout — not triggered yet.	48%	-0.05%	-0.10%	24,225
Breaking outClearing resistance on the signal day.	49%	+0.03%	+0.00%	4,150
Broke outAlready cleared resistance in prior sessions.	54%	+0.21%	+0.28%	4,739
Retesting breakoutPulling back to the breakout level.	55%	+0.14%	+0.17%	1,239

By lane — over the next 10 sessions

The four long-only lanes track a breakout's life cycle, from coiling to retest.

Lane / pattern	Win rate	Avg return	Median	Signals
Setting upCoiling toward a breakout — not triggered yet.	49%	-0.11%	-0.06%	23,351
Breaking outClearing resistance on the signal day.	55%	+0.27%	+0.29%	3,963
Broke outAlready cleared resistance in prior sessions.	54%	+0.17%	+0.30%	4,285
Retesting breakoutPulling back to the breakout level.	52%	+0.26%	+0.10%	1,157

By lane — over the next 20 sessions

The four long-only lanes track a breakout's life cycle, from coiling to retest.

Lane / pattern	Win rate	Avg return	Median	Signals
Setting upCoiling toward a breakout — not triggered yet.	45%	-0.98%	-0.61%	20,695
Breaking outClearing resistance on the signal day.	44%	-1.52%	-0.82%	3,322
Broke outAlready cleared resistance in prior sessions.	45%	-1.03%	-0.49%	3,475
Retesting breakoutPulling back to the breakout level.	45%	-0.45%	-0.36%	949

By pattern — over the next 5 sessions

The bullish chart patterns we put on the long board, ranked by how many we've published.

Lane / pattern	Win rate	Avg return	Median	Signals
Falling trendline break	59%	+0.50%	+0.54%	8,764
Ascending Triangle	47%	-0.02%	-0.06%	8,326
Flat Base	42%	-0.17%	-0.44%	6,634
Bull Flag	46%	-0.24%	-0.26%	5,695
Cup & Handle	50%	+0.06%	+0.02%	1,528
Bull Pennant	43%	-0.42%	-0.56%	1,419
Inverse Head & Shoulders	45%	-0.47%	-0.73%	334

Fusion signals — over the next 5 sessions

The composite daily signals that fuse alt-data with the chart — newer than the lanes.

Signal	Win rate	Avg return	Median	Signals
Smart-Money ConfluenceStocks with recent insider + Congress buying (score ≥ 40). Measures activity, not edge.	42%	-1.18%	-0.83%	11,504
Power Earnings GapA recent earnings beat that gapped up on volume.	50%	+0.00%	+0.00%	10,904

By market regime — setups over the next 5 sessions

How our setups performed by the market-timing read in effect when they fired.

Market regime	Win rate	Avg return	Median	Signals
Confirmed uptrend	48%	-0.25%	-0.06%	4,151
Uptrend under pressure	51%	-0.22%	+0.06%	1,076
Market in correction	48%	-0.05%	-0.07%	25,417

By grade

Grades use the scoring adopted 2026-10-22; this table fills as those signals age.

Grade	Next 5 · win / avg / n	Next 10 · win / avg / n	Next 20 · win / avg / n
A+	61% +0.74% 18	50% +1.66% 6	—
A	65% +0.35% 161	27% -5.21% 26	—
B	62% +0.57% 324	49% -1.49% 57	—
C	68% +0.87% 413	49% +0.06% 93	—
D	64% +0.98% 1,048	61% +1.86% 199	—

Against its own plan

Every setup comes with an entry, a stop and a target. A setup that hasn't broken out is a trade only once price reaches its entry (it fills there, or at the open if it gaps over); one that never does — or breaks its stop first — is counted as never triggered, not as a loss. Lanes already past the breakout enter at the close they were flagged. Then: which came first, stop or target, within 20 sessions of the flag — runs flagged in the last 90 days, judged on daily highs and lows. A day that touched both counts as stopped.

Lane	Trades	Target first	Stop first	Neither (20d)	Never triggered	Avg return	vs S&P 500
All lanes	3,310	36%	43%	20%	2,488	−1.47%	−1.00%
Setting up	2,437	35%	44%	20%	2,488	−1.46%	−1.02%
Breaking out now	501	43%	45%	12%	0	−2.22%	−1.72%
Broke out	297	32%	34%	34%	0	−0.73%	−0.12%
Retesting breakout	75	43%	28%	29%	0	+0.27%	+0.98%

The latest finished runs — winners and losers

Symbol	Lane	Flagged	Result	vs S&P 500
ACT	Setting up	Oct 29, 2026	Stopped in 6d · −3.5%	+0.9%
APD	Setting up	Oct 28, 2026	Stopped in 7d · −2.4%	+2.4%
BBDC	Broke out	Nov 5, 2026	Target hit in 1d · +0.1%	−0.2%
BLND	Breaking out now	Nov 4, 2026	Stopped in 2d · −22.9%	−18.8%
CBRL	Setting up	Oct 27, 2026	Stopped in 8d · −5.5%	−1.0%
COLD	Setting up	Oct 29, 2026	Target hit in 6d · +9.1%	+13.5%
CSRE	Breaking out now	Oct 9, 2026	Neither in 20d · +5.5%	+11.0%
DGICA	Setting up	Nov 4, 2026	Stopped in 2d · −4.1%	+0.0%
DNP	Setting up	Oct 9, 2026	Neither in 20d · +0.8%	+6.4%
EFC	Breaking out now	Nov 4, 2026	Stopped in 2d · −4.3%	−0.2%
FLG	Setting up	Nov 2, 2026	Stopped in 4d · −4.5%	−2.2%
FLG	Breaking out now	Nov 4, 2026	Stopped in 2d · −4.7%	−0.6%
FNCL	Broke out	Oct 9, 2026	Neither in 20d · +4.1%	+9.6%
HALO	Broke out	Oct 28, 2026	Stopped in 7d · −16.7%	−12.0%
HIO	Setting up	Oct 9, 2026	Neither in 20d · −1.7%	+3.8%
KRP	Broke out	Oct 9, 2026	Neither in 20d · −0.6%	+5.0%
LSPD	Broke out	Oct 9, 2026	Neither in 20d · −3.3%	+2.3%
M	Setting up	Oct 29, 2026	Stopped in 6d · −5.2%	−0.8%
MMI	Setting up	Nov 2, 2026	Stopped in 4d · −8.9%	−6.7%
MNST	Setting up	Oct 30, 2026	Stopped in 5d · −7.8%	−5.1%
MUJ	Setting up	Oct 9, 2026	Neither in 20d · +1.8%	+7.3%
MYI	Setting up	Oct 23, 2026	Target hit in 10d · +3.4%	+6.6%
NMIH	Setting up	Oct 30, 2026	Stopped in 5d · −6.7%	−4.0%
NOMD	Setting up	Oct 30, 2026	Stopped in 5d · −4.0%	−1.4%
PFE	Setting up	Oct 29, 2026	Stopped in 6d · −5.3%	−0.9%
QGEN	Setting up	Nov 4, 2026	Stopped in 2d · −0.9%	+3.2%
RSKD	Setting up	Oct 20, 2026	Stopped in 13d · −7.4%	−3.0%
RSP	Setting up	Oct 9, 2026	Neither in 20d · −1.0%	+4.5%
SAMG	Setting up	Oct 9, 2026	Neither in 20d · −1.6%	+4.0%
SHOO	Setting up	Oct 9, 2026	Neither in 20d · −15.3%	−9.8%

By liquidity

Closed plan trades from the last five months, by the stock's 20-day average dollar volume on the day it was flagged. The app labels anything under $5M Thin for this reason. Five months is one market, so read it as a description, not a rule.

Avg daily $ volume	Win rate	Avg return	Median	vs SPY	Stopped	Trades
Under $1M	39%	-4.20%	-5.40%	-4.37%	45%	194
$1M–$5M	44%	-1.90%	-1.30%	-2.22%	38%	886
$5M–$20M	49%	-0.59%	-0.06%	-0.79%	34%	1,471
$20M–$100M	49%	-0.81%	-0.43%	-1.06%	35%	1,977
$100M+	50%	-0.53%	+0.02%	-0.80%	34%	1,601

The longer base rate

Beyond our own log, the underlying edge is measurable over a longer window: across 84,837 fresh 50-day-high breakouts in the last ~252 sessions of our price history, the average 5-session forward return was -0.24% and 49% closed higher.

Educational only — not financial advice. Chart and candlestick patterns frequently fail, and a forward return measured at a fixed horizon ignores the entry, stop, and target a trader would actually use. Numbers refresh daily and will shift as the sample grows.

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